Cash management in Tunisia: building visibility for your decisions

1. Define the forecast’s question and horizon

The forecast must address a decision: paying a supplier, preparing for a seasonal period, committing to an investment or examining a financing need. Define the horizon and update frequency according to this question.

Close monitoring may help during sensitive weeks; a monthly view allows a longer period to be examined. These views should rely on the same flows to avoid contradictory conclusions. The level of detail depends on the size of commitments.

Start with the balance actually available on a specific date. Distinguish accounts and currencies, as well as amounts that cannot be accessed immediately. Do not treat an unconfirmed credit facility as a certain inflow.

The cash flow plan presented by Bpifrance matches receipts and payments to their period. This general principle must be adapted to your operations and information.

2. Gather cash flows and their likely dates

For inflows, examine invoices, due dates, deposits and expected receipts. An invoice’s issue date is not necessarily its payment date. An unconfirmed order remains an assumption, separate from existing receivables.

For outflows, gather supplier commitments, remuneration, expenses, financing payments and investments. Have dates and amounts relating to applicable obligations checked with your accounting adviser. Do not use an average that conceals a significant due date.

Connect commercial and financial information. A delivery delay can postpone invoicing and therefore collection. This connection must be visible before pressure appears on the account.

3. Build the forecast balance without confusing measures

For each period, the closing balance equals the opening balance plus receipts minus payments. The closing balance becomes the next period’s opening balance. Check this carry-forward, particularly when several people edit the file.

A sale may contribute to profit before it is collected. An investment or repayment may use funds under rules different from expense recognition. A cash forecast therefore does not replace the income statement.

Define a consistent basis for amounts actually paid and collected. Have taxes and entries examined with your accounting adviser; do not mix sales excluding tax with payments including tax without adjustment.

Flag missing information and the update date. A balanced spreadsheet obtained by adding assumed financing does not provide reliable visibility.

4. Prepare scenarios and alerts

The base scenario uses the best-documented assumptions. A downside scenario may examine a late receipt, an additional purchase or an unexpected expense. Explicitly change the selected variables rather than arbitrarily reducing every amount.

Alert thresholds depend on commitments and accessible resources. Define the date by which a decision must be made, not just a minimum balance. Action taken after the due date may be too late.

Associate a response with each situation: confirm a date with the customer, revisit an investment schedule, examine a financing option or negotiate a due date. These options must be assessed and agreed; they are not guaranteed.

An automated alert can facilitate monitoring, but should signal data quality and exceptions. A tool cannot independently confirm that a receipt will arrive on the planned date.

5. Compare actuals and explain variances

At each update, match planned movements with actual movements. Distinguish a timing difference, an amount difference and an unplanned flow. This classification helps correct the appropriate assumption.

Examine variances with the owners able to explain their cause. A shifted due date must not disappear from the spreadsheet. Keep enough history to understand changes without maintaining several competing versions.

The review can bring together finance, sales and operations. It should lead to a few decisions: information to confirm, action to take and a reporting date. Avoid a meeting that merely comments on a balance.

Our article on financial and accounting organisation sets out the roles and handovers needed for this monitoring.

6. Fictional example: a delayed receipt changes the decision

Fictional example in TND, with no tax situation modelled. A business starts a period with TND 20,000. It forecasts TND 30,000 in receipts and TND 35,000 in payments. The forecast closing balance is TND 15,000.

A TND 12,000 payment is then postponed to the next period. With no other change, the forecast balance falls to TND 3,000. The invoice amount has not changed; its timing changes visibility.

The business checks upcoming outflows and resources actually available. It examines whether an investment can be postponed and which due dates need confirmation. It does not add a financing inflow without a documented agreement.

At the next review, the actual movement is matched with the forecast. The example illustrates a calculation, without proposing a universal threshold or asserting that a financing solution will be obtained.

7. Establish management routines and answer common questions

Appoint someone responsible for updates, identify sources and establish who decides on actions. Protect file access and changes to sensitive assumptions. Another person must be able to review the forecast.

Start with significant flows and progressively improve the detail. Reliable dates and regular review matter more than a large number of unused columns.

The cash management advisory service helps structure this visibility and the questions to resolve.

Should we update every day?

Frequency depends on pressure, volume and information quality. Define a proportionate schedule and a rule for significant changes.

Can we forecast with incomplete data?

Yes, by displaying assumptions and limitations. Missing flows must be identified and assigned to someone responsible for confirmation.

Does profit guarantee sufficient cash?

No. Profit and available funds follow different principles; movement dates must be examined.